Bar-Yam Global SOF Immune System and Starship Troopers Attacks

Screen Shot 2016-05-07 at 9.03.26 AMSo this happened– Dr. Taleb said the Islamic State can’t be beaten by conventional forces and Dr. Bar-Yam said that distributed nodes of SOF modelled as a kind of globalized immune system could beat IS.  Here is the West Point talk where Baryam describes his model.

Two large problems– 1) its first necessary to displace the pre-existing local immune system (ie Islam) where islamic insurgencies represent indigenous T-cells and leucocytes–( a task that the US is failing epically at )– and 2) command/control nodes are locally centralized.

The attack that killed the Navy SEAL this week represents an IS adaptation that explicitly demonstrates just how fragile Bar-Yam’s model is.  I’m calling this a Starship Troopers attack.  Starship Troopers is a movie that (satirically) describes an earth war against ferocious aggro giant insects bent on dominating the galaxy.  There are many layers to explore in Troopers, but I’m focusing on a single event, where Earth is losing the war until “Carl” discovers the Arachnid troops are directed by “Brain Bugs” protected by insulating layers of Arachnid soldiers– much like US SOF “advisors” are insulated from the battlefront by layers of brown indigeneous shock troops (YPG/Pesh/Iraqi army) from combat.  So all IS has to do is punch through the “insulation” and kill the “brain” (advisor pod).

Warfighting is adaptive and evolutionary in nature– strategies and counter-strategies are emergent.  While designing the strat to take out the Twin Towers Osama Bin Laden is reported to have watched Black Hawk Down dozens of times.

Perhaps Yaneer Bar-Yam should watch it at least once.

11 thoughts on “Bar-Yam Global SOF Immune System and Starship Troopers Attacks

  1. IS has lost 40% of its peak territory, its cash flow has been severely disrupted,and the sealing of borders cuts it off from its supply of reinforcements.It’s left with propaganda victories, like the killing of the Navy Seal. I give it 2 years before it before it practically becomes a non-entity.

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  2. The genie is out of the bottle…and most Muslims have rejected it. How many IS flags do you see flying in Istanbul, Cairo, or Karachi? Like its predecessor AQ, IS severely overestimated how its actions would be positively received. The people in the region have turned to their armies to finish off these groups.

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    • IS model is different from AQ– in Idarat al tawahhush Naji requires only an elite force used to control the muslim populations. Many revolutions started with only a handful of followers. This is early times in a long game.
      u need to reread Atran–

      It matters little that, as J M Berger wrote last month in The Atlantic, ‘the Islamic State’s ideological sympathisers make up less than 1 per cent of the world’s population [and] that active, voluntary participants in its caliphate project certainly make up less than a tenth of a percent’. Few, if any, revolutionary vanguards in history achieved success by first capturing a significant portion of the world’s population, or even the support of people in their home regions. During the surge of US troops in Iraq, up to three-fourths of the fighters were neutralised in Al-Qaeda’s Iraqi affiliate, which would become ISIS, and an average of about a dozen high-value targets were eliminated monthly for 15 consecutive months, including its top leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Yet the organisation survived and the group went on to thrive beyond all expectation amid the chaos of Syria’s civil war and Iraq’s factional decomposition.

      There will be 1 billion youth in Africa by mid-century. What is 1% of a billion?

      Few revolutionary vanguards achieved success by first capturing a significant portion of the world’s population, or even the support of people in their home regions

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      • IS thrives on chaos– it is a growth medium for IS. As long as there are chaos fields from failed states in MENA and sub-saharan Africa and East Asia, insurgencies like IS will emerge and thrive. It hardly matters what they are called.
        It is not possible to impose secular democracy on majority muslim populations. US been tryin and failing for nearly forty years.

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  3. Groups like IS do indeed emerge out of chaos, but they do not and will not thrive because the answer to chaos is not more chaos- as these groups bring forth. And support for these groups is going down, it’s not just a question of how many adherents you initially have but what is the trend. Do you know how many revolutions died and lost steam when the populace grew tired of them?

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  4. im bored with this….ur hatred of IS blinds you to the complex reality of the situ
    and u have the understanding of a box of rocks
    islamic terrorism is exploding all over the world– there have been 95 attacks so far in 2016
    it wont stop

    and u are utterly clueless about the nature of chaos

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  5. “While designing the strat to take out the Twin Towers Osama Bin Laden is reported to have watched Black Hawk Down dozens of times.”

    Wikipedia tells me that Black Hawk Down was released on December 28, 2001.

    ?

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