So this happened– Dr. Taleb said the Islamic State can’t be beaten by conventional forces and Dr. Bar-Yam said that distributed nodes of SOF modelled as a kind of globalized immune system could beat IS. Here is the West Point talk where Baryam describes his model.
Two large problems– 1) its first necessary to displace the pre-existing local immune system (ie Islam) where islamic insurgencies represent indigenous T-cells and leucocytes–( a task that the US is failing epically at )– and 2) command/control nodes are locally centralized.
The attack that killed the Navy SEAL this week represents an IS adaptation that explicitly demonstrates just how fragile Bar-Yam’s model is. I’m calling this a Starship Troopers attack. Starship Troopers is a movie that (satirically) describes an earth war against ferocious aggro giant insects bent on dominating the galaxy. There are many layers to explore in Troopers, but I’m focusing on a single event, where Earth is losing the war until “Carl” discovers the Arachnid troops are directed by “Brain Bugs” protected by insulating layers of Arachnid soldiers– much like US SOF “advisors” are insulated from the battlefront by layers of brown indigeneous shock troops (YPG/Pesh/Iraqi army) from combat. So all IS has to do is punch through the “insulation” and kill the “brain” (advisor pod).
Warfighting is adaptive and evolutionary in nature– strategies and counter-strategies are emergent. While designing the strat to take out the Twin Towers Osama Bin Laden is reported to have watched Black Hawk Down dozens of times.
Perhaps Yaneer Bar-Yam should watch it at least once.