Terrible Lie


My depression and lack of posting isnt directly attributable to the election…its all about what the election has unveiled.  Like the creeping reveal of a terrifying horror movie there were plenty of clues in the run-up to Trump’s election.  The one thing that Trump told his supporters that was actually true– “I am your last chance”.  If the GOP remains the party of non-college whites they will never win a majority again.

But the coming liberal supermajority isnt exactly good news for our democratic republic.  The Terrible Lie that America is founded upon is that “all men are created equal”.  Liberals believe that the playing field (environment) can be leveled with law– conservatives believe that attitude can triumph over aptitude (“drive”) — these are articles of faith.   Yet neither of these aphorisms are true.  The truth is that we can’t level the genes.  At least, not yet.

The deciding factor in the election was educational attainment, pointed out by Nate Silver and Daniel McCormack—  McCormack’s analysis is especially trenchant when applied to the four battleground states that decided the election.  Yet no one is talking about this.  Are we afraid to?  Maybe.

What we are going to discover going forward is correlation of IQ and educational attainment, correlation of IQ and SES, correlation of brain biochemistry and IQ…and horribly — inverse correlation of IQ and educational attainment with red brain biochemistry.  Data Science, R programming, MIT’s Social Machine, and accelerated research into cognitive genomics with our new fabulous 21st century technology toolset– these tools are going to raise the lid on a pandora’s box of horrors that we would much rather not know…because it means secular democracy is a Terrible Lie.

The Founder’s America was built on the rough electoral parity of two ideologies– but what happens when there is radical electoral dimorphism?  In polarized America, the only thing that breaks familial tendency  seems to be education.  So what Grand Bargain can a permanent liberal supermajority offer the conservative minority?  Is there a place for Jefferson’s Noble Yeomen Farmers in the college-educated hightech world of the future where robots do their old blue-collar jobs?  Just one example– with the advent of self-driving cars 1.5 million long haul truckers are projected to lose their jobs within 4 years.  Can Trump bring those jobs back too?

This is why KellyAnne Conway (aka Skeletor in Drag) is so vested in pushing the eumeme of “alternative facts”.  Its why the GOP’s only pragmatic option for maintaining political power is fascism.

Even though I am a flaming liberal I hate this…I stood in class and pledged allegiance like everyone else.  If the richest country on earth cant realize the dream of a representative republic what hope is there to spread “democracy” to the rest of the planet?  And even worse…how to keep red brain genetic tendency Americans from finding out the truth?

Unz blogger Razib Khan once famously (or infamously) mused– “How to tell stupid people that they are stupid…”.  Going forward Razib and the rest of the HBD crewe are gunna have to work furiously to keep them from finding out.





17 thoughts on “Terrible Lie

  1. They’ll say the difference is personality, not intelligence. “Liberals aren’t smarter, they are just more susceptible to indoctrination by cultural Marxism.”


    • Wont be able to because of genomic data– and anyways it wont matter. There are more college educated Americans every year, and less of Silents and Boomers as the Olds die off. As the older, sicker Americans die off they will be replaced with younger, Millenials and Gen Xers and college-educated Americans.
      There are ~20 million new college freshmen each year.
      And look at the Scholastic Poll– abt half those kids will be able to vote in 2020.
      The GOP lost by 3 million votes this year — they will never win the popular majority again. And eventually the rising tide of educated Americans will top the levees of gerrymandered districts.


  2. I don’t know, I think this post would be more relevant in a world where Hillary won. If there really is such a thing as red and blue genotypes, with red being dumber, it is still entirely possible that future politics will cut across red and blue boundaries. Huge ideological shifts are manifestly occurring in America. If I look at the issues where Trump attracted support – trade, immigration, war – I see no reason at all why an educated population needs to support free trade, open borders, and interventionist empire. And in fact progressives seem to oppose 2 out of 3 of those, the exception being open borders.

    btw: “Stupidity as a mental illness”, by an xNSA guy.


    • there is an entire body of cognitive neuroscience work on red/blue brain biochemistry– the internet is like the invention of the printing press– except it enables “alternative” facts and fake science to be spread via SNT thru conservative aligned social networks


    • Exactly. It’s too trite to assume the constitutional democratic system got it wrong. I can make at least as good a case that the system got it right, and Trump deserved to win because he had the right policies at the right time – Signaled above all by the peaking of globalization.

      Listen – world merchandise trade has been flat since 2008. Just before the Great Recession – the Global Financial Crisis. There’s at least three trends now unraveling the globalized economy.

      1. The general peaking of the world trade in fossil fuels.

      2. The consequence that the oil+gas countertrade is also peaking. i.e. We no longer have to export so much stuff to pay for import fewer fossil fuels.

      3. The end of outsourcing of cheap labor to the developing world because of robotics. Why transport goods when you can transmit information and then cheap robotic labor, 3D printers etc. can make stuff anywhere.

      At the very least this allows you to shorten all the supply networks with much less capital tied up in container ships at sea.

      And in a post fossil world where long range transport is hard but electricity is cheap – The reverse of the fossil fuel case – This is the coming informationalized economy.

      And why the hell can’t the Europeans defend themselves? They have 3 times larger population than Russia and 6 times larger GDP. And it can only get easier in a post fossil fuel world where Putin can no longer fund his government and his war machine by selling oil and gas to the Europeans, Chinese etc.

      And US really does need to rebalance from the Atlantic to the Pacific because China. Let the Europeans defend themselves or let them learn to speak Russian. Their call.


      • I defy anyone to look at this chart and not see that a major rebalancing of global power relations is imminent: goo.gl/DhviDF

        Trump is right. NATO as we have known it is obsolete.

        It is not unreasonable to ask Europe to get ready to handle the bulk of its regional security, especially Russia, while US rebalances.

        It is not unreasonable to ask for much more effort from America’s Asian allies, especially Japan.

        Even if you think that the world has not changed yet; I invite you to just project the trends in the chart and ask yourself if the world will still be the same 8 years from now, after President Trump’s second term?


  3. Didn’t really mean that he necessarily would. Rather that this is the timescale over which we might expect beginnings of major systemic change.

    Trump is the first US president to govern over the transition to the Beyond (Postwar order). The end of the Postwar order that emerged after WW2 dominated by US and USSR; then after 1989, Soviets collapsed leaving US as last postwar superpower.

    IMF/World Bank data shows China passed US GDP@PPP around 2013 but won’t completely catch up in per-capita terms before late 2030s. Possibly 2040s if growth slows as economy matures. So for next 20 years at least, emergence of China as the world’s greatest power will be #1 new political fact in the world.

    India will be second Asian superpower. It started catch-up boom early in the 21st century, and I am projecting it will pass US GDP around 2028, in about 11 years time. I am currently projecting its per-capita growth will not max out before early 2060s.

    So before mid-21st century I am expecting US to be #3 world power. Trump is the first US president who will have to start process of adjusting to that new global reality.


  4. That’s why Trump’s determination to decouple US from freeloading allies is so important and timely. US security in future will depend on allies that really make a difference. US can no longer afford to dispense protection to a bunch of glorified dependencies. Pax Americana is dead if US is no longer #1 power, let alone #3.

    In principle the Western alliance could deploy its collective power more effectively – dividing responsibilities – if everyone pulled their weight and accepted full share of the collective burden. Also I believe we should seriously consider expanding the alliance. But that’s a separate question, best discussed elsewhere.


  5. No I don’t believe the US conflict with the Islamic world will continue much longer. US oil imports are trending down although it’s glitched since the recent price crash: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M

    But I still expect the long-term trend is down. Even Europe and Japan will join the downtrend during the 2020s (because of EVs) leaving China as the overwhelmingly dominant oil importer during the 2020s – Mostly because its car market is still expanding rapidly – Already bigger than US btw.

    So I’m assuming defensive alliance of West against the great Asian superpowers.


  6. IMO Even the tension with Russia will greatly diminish in the post fossil fuel period once Europe no longer imports oil and gas from Russia. Leaving Putin or his successors with far less revenue to fund his overseas adventures.


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