Jesusland Evolution

       After the 2004 election the Jesusland meme was everywhere.  This image represents the 30 red states that elected GW Bush.  We all know how that turned out.  Endless war on Islam and the horrific law of NCLB.   The meme actually originated in a science fiction book called Thirteen by Richard Morgan.  Ironically the UK title of the book was Black Man, much like the UK title of the first Harry Potter book was Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone.  Ignorant, racist America– how the world sees us.

Political science fiction, like Kim Stanley Robinson’s (his newest book New York 2140 is a projection of climate change), offers a way to test drive the future.  And the future is grim.

I’m not particularily incensed about Trump’s election– in an equilibrium system the pendulum swings back.  I think the Founders built in enough protections that 4 years of Trump can do minimal damage– surely there will be pain, but largely among Trump’s voters.  Consider Schwarzeneggers election in californis– he couldnt fufill his campaign promises and earned near universal scorn and disapproval from californians as the worst governer ever.

So that brings us to this year’s Jesusland.

As we can see the rust belt is turning red and the sunbelt is turning blue.  Why is this happening?  Nate Silver has an explanation.    The correlation of educational attainment with liberal voting patterns.  Its pretty powerful.

So this is why we are seeing a frantic attempt to insert conservative ideology into university campuses, ie Murray Racial IQ Theory at Middlebury college.  The problem in complex adaptive systems dynamics is that red and blue demes are disequilibriating under relative fitness in the 21st century.  The Founders design worked great while there was rough parity between the two sub-populations.  But going forward that assumption doesnt hold.  Increased blue demes correlate with educational attainment, local economic growth, centers of culture and academe.  Here is the population dis-equilibriation visualized.

So now lets take a look into the future, via the scholastic poll 2016.

Half these students will be eligible to vote in 2020.   The single greatest correlate for young voters is how their parents voted.  But this poll is showing something else– that education ALONE can cause a switch in affiliation from red to blue.  Its probably not just education, but social influence.  So as more Americans become educated ( a 4-yr college education is perceived by ALL parents as the greatest enhancement of economic ability) we headed for a permanent liberal supermajority.

Can that be a democratic republic?

idk.

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9 thoughts on “Jesusland Evolution

  1. I’m not sure I agree that the red/blue split will ever disappear. After all left-right politics is a fact of democratic life, even in very socialist societies, like say France, as well as highly individualistic societies, like say US.

    So I’d suggest an alternative model, where left-right is always a relative measure, compared to what is mainstream today. It’s simply the split between those who want to change vs those who want to conserve.

    In that case, it’s quite possible that today’s liberals will be tomorrow’s mainstream. i.e there could be a general shift to the left. But even so, relative to that recentered center, there will still be a left-right split in the democratic polity of that time.

    After all, the left-right split is about where do we want to go from here? But “here” is an ever-moving target.

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  2. I’d also suggest that perhaps you haven’t studied the strategy of the right closely enough in this election. I was as shocked as anyone when Trump won. I found Trump very creepy and preferred to ignore him. So I just accepted the reassurance of the poll aggregators that Hillary would win by a landslide.

    Of course when DT won, it was obvious that I couldn’t ignore him any longer, as he was now POTUS. So I started to study him and the movement that gave rise to him much more closely.

    I started by following anyone who seemed to have any expertise in understanding DT and his politics. They quickly led me to Breitbart as a major influence center for the Alt Right politics associated with Steve Bannon and Trump. I also found Milo as a major campaigner and salesman for the movement among the younger voters.

    I have continued to read Breitbart closely since then, because it still offers major insights into Trumpian perspectives. I also listened to every lecture by Milo I could find, until he finally jumped the shark, and disqualified himself.

    My conclusions are that the Right were very ingenious to identify the working class whites as a seriously disaffected voting class. This was a group that in the past, might have easily been recruited by the socialist left. Yet somehow the left ignored them in this election, and the right picked them up.

    So I’d say the following to you: Every election is different. The issues of 2020 won’t necessarily have any relationship to the issues of 2016. The key in any election is to identify the disaffected or the strongly motivated to tap into their energy and vibe. The clever campaign manager is like a expert surfer; The problem is to find the wave, then catch it and ride it to its victorious conclusion.

    If you’d like an insight into the right’s thinking in this election, and how carefully they targeted the working class whites and their sensibilities, then I’d recommend this lecture by Milo: Why the Democrats lost the White Working Class https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szi1TolCIaI

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  3. OK one more point. I have to say that I was really disappointed by the poor performance of Hillary in this election. Of course were coming off the back of Obama, who was an outstandingly strong candidate for the Center-Left. And he would have been a hard act to follow for anyone. But it makes me wonder if losing traditional Dem voters, like working class whites, would have happened with a candidate that had stronger lefty credentials like Bernie? Hillary was a poor establishment candidate.

    This BTW gets me to my pet peeve about this election. The Democrats had one absolutely brilliant potential candidate who IMHO could have totally destroyed Donald Trump. Somehow the party failed to persuade her to stand. Or maybe she was just too reluctant herself. I’m talking about Elizabeth Warren.

    Warren not standing, is to me, the greatest lost opportunity of this election.

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    • Hilary was a dreadful candidate– her sense of entitlement, her hubris and vanity, most especially her choice of VP– a harmonica playing grandpa that could never overshadow her, instead of someone that could help dems going forward like Booker or Castro– or even Warren.
      she changed the brilliance of OFA GOTV into a centralized phone bank.
      she deserved to lose.
      the pendulum will swing back– the Founders built in protections against their greatest fear– an elected demogogue.
      my fear is this is the last time– some new form of USG will have to emerge to deal with permanent liberal supermajority.
      America is becoming more educated and more diverse– cant be stopped.

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  4. I doubt there will be a permanent liberal supermajority. There may be a permanent shift to the left, like in socialist Europe, but new left-right camps will emerge relative to that newly relocated center.

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  5. BTW if you think things are radical now in America, you should have seen the 1960s. Desegregation in the South. The Civil Rights movement. Womens’ Liberation. The pill and the sexual revolution. The hippy movement and the psychedelic drugs movement. Pot + LSD. The antiwar movement against the Vietnam war. Massive protests in the streets. Literally millions of people. The gap between generations even in hair and clothing styles. Music. OMGosh. This is TAME by comparison.

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