A Constructed Complex Adaptive Invasive Strategy for Cultural Transmission

Here is a really salient article from Nadim Shehadi on the current KSA v Qatar confrontation, where he breaks down the nuances of the conflict.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia, between whom the conflict is most bitter, are also the closest: they share the same Wahhabi beliefs, and Qatar’s ruling family, the Al-Thani, claim direct descent from Imam Abdul Wahhab himself.

While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, together with Egypt, are leading the charge against Qatar this time, they also have their own differences. A conference in Chechnya last year, in which the UAE played a prominent part, brought together about 100 Islamic scholars including ones sponsored by the Egyptian government, who declared that Salafi and Wahhabi doctrines are not part of mainstream Sunni Islam, effectively excluding both Saudi Arabia and Qatar from the definition. This is equivalent to delegitimizing the Al-Saud’s claim to their rule, much worse than any sin that Qatar has committed.

Their disagreements are serious. At the root of the dispute is a policy debate on how to deal with issues such as the various forms of radical Islam. Their similarity lies in that they all firmly believe that they are the main target of Islamist radicalism whether Sunni or Shia. Where they differ is in how to deal with the phenomenon, with approaches ranging from appeasement to co-option and suppression. They have different policies wherever the Muslim Brotherhood is involved, so they support opposing sides in Egypt, Libya, Turkey, Syria and Palestine. Qatar acts much like marginal states in Europe, such as Norway or Switzerland, maintaining relations with all sides while trying to play a mediating role.

The problem with salafi and wahhabi doctrines is that they provide a nourishing intellectual, cultural and emotional substrate for jihadism, and also that they are an integral part of Islam.  Jihad is in the DNA of the Quran…and oppression of the ummah acts like a trigger for the expression of salafi-jihadism.  And its impossible to get rid of jihad without rewriting the Quran.  Currently the GCC countries are pointing the finger at each other over the spread of islamic terrorism– who is the biggest terrorist enabler.  I think it depends if spreading wahhabism is equivalent to spreading salafi-jihad (aka islamic terrorism)?  Since it is the basic substrate.

The biggest challenge the Gulf states face is not invasion by Iran, it is their population’s growing sympathy with radicalism and this is linked to Iran’s actions in the region. Images of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp together with Hezbollah and other Iranian-sponsored militias ethnically cleansing areas of Sunnis in Iraq or participating in starvation sieges in Syria expose the failure of the rich Gulf states. This in turn serves to delegitimize Saudi claims to leadership of the Sunni Muslim world that radical movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic State group are challenging.

I think Shehadi’s analysis is very cogent in the restricted neighborhood of the ME, where there is a Shia/Sunni conflict, but its interesting to observe what is happening in the broader theater of dar ul Islam.

In the broader theater, Sunnis are massively dominant in places like Indonesia and Africa, where the Shia/IRG is not a neighborhood threat.  There are for example, 80 million sunni muslims in Nigeria, and there are 202.9 million sunni muslims in Indonesia.


I thought these comments from Dr. Davidson were very interesting.

He is citing data from this article about Jakarta’s recent election.

JUST A FEW months ago, the governor of Indonesia’s largest city, Jakarta, seemed headed for easy re-election despite the fact that he is a Christian in a mostly Muslim country. Suddenly everything went violently wrong. Using the pretext of an offhand remark the governor made about the Koran, masses of enraged Muslims took to the streets to denounce him. In short order he lost the election, was arrested, charged with blasphemy, and sentenced to two years in prison.

This episode is especially alarming because Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim country, has long been one of its most tolerant. Indonesian Islam, like most belief systems on that vast archipelago, is syncretic, gentle, and open-minded. The stunning fall of Jakarta’s governor reflects the opposite: intolerance, sectarian hatred, and contempt for democracy. Fundamentalism is surging in Indonesia. This did not happen naturally.

This is a persistant adaptive strategy of invasive cultural transmission.

Saudi Arabia has been working for decades to pull Indonesia away from moderate Islam and toward the austere Wahhabi form that is state religion in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis’ campaign has been patient, multi-faceted, and lavishly financed. It mirrors others they have waged in Muslim countries across Asia and Africa.

“The educational network spreads itself.”  That’s very good.  Indonesia has a large “malleable muslim majority”– 202.9 million muslims.

In his book, Shadow Wars, Dr. Davidson also writes about how KSA exploits the hajj to fund terror groups.

This shows that KSA’s demonization of Qatar as a terrorist-funder is really just misdirection.  What Qatar does sponser is anti-KSA dissent.  Like Shehadi’s description of Qatar as the Switzerland of the GCC, Qatar hosts al Jazeerha, saudi dissidents, bahraini and yemeni dissidents, and the MB.  This is also an example of  how KSA’s physical possession of the ka’bah is used to exploit the hajj as a conduit to fund minority or sectarian muslim demographies to destabilize the ruling regime, (Dr. Davidson’s second strategy).

Here we have House Muslim & perpetually wrong pundit Shadi Hamid on Whats Different About Islam in Indonesia and Malaysia — not going to be that way much longer IMHO.  Actually, doesnt the Jakarta election blow up his whole thesis?  Indonesians used the blasphemy law on the books to sentence the ex-governor to 2 years in prison.

What distinguishes Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as their electorates, isn’t some readiness to embrace the gradual privatization of religion. The difference is that their brand of Islamic politics garners much less attention in the West, in part because they aren’t seen as strategically vital and, perhaps more importantly, because the passage of Islamic legislation is simply less controversial domestically. There has been a coming to terms with Islam’s role in public life, where in much of the Middle East, there hasn’t — at least not yet.

This is entirely wrong– KSA is exploiting the shariah “on the books” to transform univerisities to wahhabist institutions, to sentence the ex-governor, to pull Indonesian culture and society in the direction they want it to go.

I would love to have data to measure the spread of wahhabism through Indonesian culture– in contemporary Indonesia KSA is employing the first strategy…seeding the large malleable muslim population with wahhabism using educational and clerical networks.  This is a complex adaptive strategy using a mixed system of oblique, lateral and vertical transmission, and its condensed and amplified by the convolution of education and religion.  KSA is funding universities and mosques– two primary and co-dependent centers of social influence.  The strategy of offering scholarships and study in Mecca to the brightest students– brilliant.  An engineered meritocracy where wahhabism becomes the highest layer of the clerical class structure.

I would employ Cavalli-Sforza’s useful criteria-

Relationship of teacher and taught.

Age differences of cultural generations

Numerical relation between teacher and taught

Complexity of society, social structure and hierarchial layers

If I could get a capture I could build the transmission matrices to do generational iterations.  How cool would that be?  We are entering A Golden Age of Data, where data is going to be cheap and abundant and available to all.

Even to Shadi Hamid.

Editor’s note:  I’m told the Chechnya conference that UAE participated in was organized by Kadirov (Putin), and run by largely Sufi scholars.  Probably not very influential on the main [sunni] population of dar ul Islam, and directed explicitly at Putin’s current growing problems in Chechnya and Inghusetia.


10 thoughts on “A Constructed Complex Adaptive Invasive Strategy for Cultural Transmission

  1. It’s a thoughtful, careful post, BC. And I congratulate you on it.

    There’s only one response I can honestly give you.
    Tesla just started delivering their new Model 3 electric car.
    Those of us who care about the post-fossil-fuel future,
    care deeply about this.
    To save the Earth’s climate, and human civilization,
    we need to end the age of oil and coal and gas.
    The reviews seem favorable:
    So I am hopeful that soon, a decade or two,
    the petrostates will no longer be able to exert
    their strange, anachronistic influence on human history.


  2. OK. Here’s another thought. In a PostOil world, there is a reason why developed countries, like the West or East Asia, don’t really need to worry about Islamism, per se. We only need to worry about it, as long as it is “propped up” by petroleum revenue.


    Totalitarian theocracy does much more harm to them than it does to us.


  3. I loved Bloomberg’s little video review. Tesla has raised the technology bar for electric cars to an astonishing degree. The long range version has a battery charge range of essentially 500 km – 310 miles.


    The only thing I can think of that compares to this in terms of technological revolution, was the i-Phone. Overnight we are in a new age. And even if other manufacturers catch up in the next couple years, the cumulative effect will change the world. Not a good time to be in the oil business.

    Need to take this into account when you contemplate the future of the ME petrostates.


  4. Though other manufacturers will undoubtedly catch up; Tesla is itself advancing, with intentions to bring out a performance version of Model 3 next year. It will have front/rear dual electric motors for extra power as well as four-wheel drive for enhanced traction and stability.

    Musk has also promised “ludicrous mode”; which was such a feature of the previous models. With pinned to the back of your seat acceleration.

    Totally off-topic but fyi I have two new posts on origin-of-life related topics.


  5. Bloomberg NEF just announced that a German consortium is to make a Gigafactory to manufacture Li-ion batteries to compete with Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada as well as several Chinese factories.

    Basically the gigawatt-hr scale manufacture of Li-ion batteries is exploding as the electric car industry is expected to pass one million plug-in cars per year in 2017.

    There is also a growing demand for batteries for grid storage to support intermittent renewable energy. Although I have to say, I’m not yet convinced that Li-ion technology will dominate in grid storage long-term. Nevertheless, the mass production of Li-ion is driving down the cost so fast that it is hard for any other battery technology to gain a foothold for the time-being.


    When completed Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada will be the largest building in the world by area. They plan several more Gigafactories in the United States to meet growing demand for electric vehicles and grid storage.


  6. Lithium is the next oil.

    We will need around 100 Gigafactories worldwide to power the world with lithium.

    Fortunately there is no real shortage of lithium, and in any case, lithium is not actually consumed in batteries. They can be recycled at the end of their service life to recover the raw materials.

    These facilities, that will replace mostly oil, will be built in the next 10 or 20 years. Tesla’s Gigafactory will run on renewable energy. Solar panels on the roof. Wind and geothermal energy.


  7. I’ve expanded the last few lithium comments into a new post about powering the world with lithium, adding lots of detailed links to explain the massive expansion in industrial capacity that is currently under way.

    Lithium is the industry that is replacing the petroleum industry. It will be gigantic as the petroleum industry is gigantic.


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