After the 2004 election the Jesusland meme was everywhere. This image represents the 30 red states that elected GW Bush. We all know how that turned out. Endless war on Islam and the horrific law of NCLB. The meme actually originated in a science fiction book called Thirteen by Richard Morgan. Ironically the UK title of the book was Black Man, much like the UK title of the first Harry Potter book was Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone. Ignorant, racist America– how the world sees us.
Political science fiction, like Kim Stanley Robinson’s (his newest book New York 2140 is a projection of climate change), offers a way to test drive the future. And the future is grim.
I’m not particularily incensed about Trump’s election– in an equilibrium system the pendulum swings back. I think the Founders built in enough protections that 4 years of Trump can do minimal damage– surely there will be pain, but largely among Trump’s voters. Consider Schwarzeneggers election in californis– he couldnt fufill his campaign promises and earned near universal scorn and disapproval from californians as the worst governer ever.
So that brings us to this year’s Jesusland.
As we can see the rust belt is turning red and the sunbelt is turning blue. Why is this happening? Nate Silver has an explanation. The correlation of educational attainment with liberal voting patterns. Its pretty powerful.
So this is why we are seeing a frantic attempt to insert conservative ideology into university campuses, ie Murray Racial IQ Theory at Middlebury college. The problem in complex adaptive systems dynamics is that red and blue demes are disequilibriating under relative fitness in the 21st century. The Founders design worked great while there was rough parity between the two sub-populations. But going forward that assumption doesnt hold. Increased blue demes correlate with educational attainment, local economic growth, centers of culture and academe. Here is the population dis-equilibriation visualized.
So now lets take a look into the future, via the scholastic poll 2016.
Half these students will be eligible to vote in 2020. The single greatest correlate for young voters is how their parents voted. But this poll is showing something else– that education ALONE can cause a switch in affiliation from red to blue. Its probably not just education, but social influence. So as more Americans become educated ( a 4-yr college education is perceived by ALL parents as the greatest enhancement of economic ability) we headed for a permanent liberal supermajority.
Can that be a democratic republic?