Islamic Diaspora

Diaspora, defn:

A diaspora is a large group of people with a similar heritage or homeland who have since moved out to places all over the world.

The term diaspora comes from an ancient Greek word meaning “to scatter about.” And that’s exactly what the people of a diaspora do — they scatter from their homeland to places across the globe, spreading their culture as they go. The Bible refers to the Diaspora of Jews exiled from Israel by the Babylonians. But the word is now also used more generally to describe any large migration of refugees, language, or culture.


From Wired magazine.

These are the outflows from just the first half of 2016, the top 19 countries for refugee outflow.  Note that the top 16 out of 19 are ME and Africa nations.  Unshockingly, war creates refugees.  The ongoing Syrian conflict seems to be still generating ~ 1 million refugees per year.  And the greatest outflows are from majority muslim countries.  This is an undesirable side-effect of US endless (and futile) “war on terror”.  Look below to see the percentage of the 21.3 million refugees that are children– over half.

The US accepts only a tiny fraction of the global refugee population– and is hugely complicit in generating the global flood with its truly awful foreign policy.  US is also contemplating a border wall to choke off immigration from south of the border, although mexicans and south americans are nearly all economic refugees, and not from war zones…or muslim.

But this is why non-action on Syria is not an option.  What US FP has done in MENA is basically create a factory for mass production and dissemination of “radical islamic terrorism”.  Consider that some tiny fraction of the ~ 100 million muslim children could become radicalized– what is .01 percent of a hundred million?  Ten thousand prospective terrorists embedded in their host populations.  Just one terrorist can do horrific damage.

Terrorism is a demand for justice in an unjust world.  Thats why a solution for the ME and Africa is critical over the next 30 years.  The choice btwn secular democracy and islamic government in majority muslim nations was never an option– the only option is a choice between different forms of islamic government.

Thats why the islamic diaspora of the 21st century is going to change the world in ways we cant begin to imagine.  It will spread islamic culture and the Quran all over the world.

To paraphrase the immortal Sewell Wright– migration is gene flow. .. and meme flow.


Flash Terror and Emergent Leaderless Resistance

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Pulse Nightclub, aftermath of Orlando Shooting.

I first heard the term “leaderless resistance” in an Edward Snowden tweet which was immediately disputed by a claim that leaderless resistance always failed.  I actually think Anonymous, OWS, 4chan and lulzsec are examples of successful leaderless resistance– not directed leaderless resistance, but emergent.  Another strong example is Palestinian found-weapon attacks.  I think Dr. Atran and I are talking about two distinct types of LR.

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Dr.Atran’s piece on Nice– “The Durability of Chaos” again falls back on Idarat al Tawahhush for explanations…this is not entirely wrong.  It is part of Nājī long game strategy to push states from “the state of vexation and exhaustion” to “the state of ripeness” with the death of a thousand cuts– bleeding the treasury and population support with endless unwinnable foreign wars and pinpoint flash terror events destabilizing the government at home.  Dr. Atran’s Paris analysis proposes the same themes– “The War ISIS Wants”.

But it is important for the American citizenry to understand that there are two broadly different types of strategic jihad– open front which is carried out in muslim lands and the covert or cellular jihad described here in Setmarian:

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The two types are independent– and designed to be carried out in parallel.  It is a mistake to propose a linkage like US is trying to do– that increased cellular jihad (lone wolf events) is caused by IS losing territory.  Hassan Hassan covers that beautifully in this article “Is the Islamic State Unstoppable”? Cellular jihad is baked into IS design which continues to adapt and evolve.  Nājī–

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I would like to propose a third type of strategic jihad– emergent leaderless resistance or “flash terror”.  This type is self-organizing so there is no digital surveillance footprint– and we can only guess at the trigger event.   It is impossible to pre-identitfy the attackers before the event.  And the trigger is not “outside inspiration”– the trigger seems to come from a RL event.  In San Bernardino the trigger appears to have been a workplace party.  In Orlando some sort of homophobic episode.  For the Tsarnevs the trigger may been just the intersection of desire and opportunity– they were planning for an attack when the Boston Marathon presented a fusion of time and place.  The actors seem to have to been preparing for some eventual terror event by stockpiling weapons and materials– and then some catalyst triggers the act.  Flash terror also seems to inform non-islamic events– Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora theater shootings, Colorado Springs abortion clinic, Umqua Community College, Dylan Roof, Munich MacDonalds.  Palestinian knife attacks/car attacks.  The common denominator is spontaneity– emergence.  I would also include the two recent cop killings in Dallas and Baton Rouge.  Interestingly both those events have multiple common traits in inspiration and execution: young black ex-military vets inspired by the Sterling and Castile murders.

These attacks are increasing even as organized jihadi-front style attacks are decreasing.  Adaptive exploitation.  And that isnt even the worst part.  Demographic shift and increasing global digital connectivity insure that incidents of flash terror will only continue to rise.  And the lone wolves or “flash terrorists” are undetectable by the Security State, whether Israel, US, Germany, Brussels or France until the event.

I do not believe jihadi front attacks are in permanent decline.  Because there is a resupply tsunami of fresh recruits coming from North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa until mid-century.  What US is doing isn’t working…IS has a long term strategy– US simply doesn’t.

A new phenomenon of flash terror is giving bayah after the attack has begun, or leaving evidence for IS to claim the attackers as a soldier of Allah.  Like Ansbach.

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Setmarian again.

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This is a global revolution.  And it has only just just begun.




On Terror

Truthfully, I find Hannah Arendt On Violence a little racist and a lot dated.  Extremely 20th century.  So I decided on a DIY to convey some of my understanding of 21st century warfare in general and of how the Islamic State uses terror in particular.  I asked a western analyst what terrorism was in his opinion– this is what he said:

“a rough definition is using violence intentionally/willingly against noncombatants for political ends”

I pointed out to him that his definition means US, Israel, Russia etc, all engage in terrorism via the Dahiya doctrine and Obama’s Law of War Manual.  And I also pointed out that IS doesn’t believe in noncombatants.  Are US taxpayers noncombatants when they fund the bombs dropped on Syrian children?  Hardly.

So I’d like to explain how the Islamic State explicitly uses terror.  IS mainly uses terror in two separate ways– 1) to promote and prosecute the state of “vexation and exhaustion” that is a precursor to the desirable “ripe” state of tawahhush– and 2) in the style of the French revolutionaries, who used “The Terror” to terrify and intimidate the aristocracy.  Its also useful as recruitment and as revenge theater– the theater of Qisas— but those are secondary to its power as part of warfighting doctrine.

Terror as an offensive weapon: IS encourages what Edward Snowden calls “leaderless resistance”, lone wolf attacks.  Like the West Bank knife attacks there is no terrorist digital footprint– no formal connections to a radical organization.  The young Palestinian just wakes up one day and instead of going to school or to work uses a found weapon to kill jews– a car or a knife.  In America guns are much easier to come by– the Tsarnovs and the San Bernardino attacks were instances of leaderless resistance– no central authority ordered the attacks.  Anti-abortionists are also examples of leaderless resistance.  These attackers are impossible to find before the terror event– they have no digital footprint in the surveillance state that predicts the attack.

The Islamic State also orders terror attacks as part of the campaign of vexation and exhaustion outlined in Abu Bakr Nājī’s brilliant war manual– The Management of Savage Chaos.  Beirut, Paris, and frequent Baghdad carbombs are likely examples of direct orders intended to destabilize the local regimes.

The Paris attack was particularily interesting in its timing– planned to exploit the refugee crisis.  Dr. Atran of ARTIS Research has devoted 15 years to the study of IS youth recruitment.  This article is trenchant– Paris: the War ISIS Wants.

The shock produced by the multiple coordinated attacks in Paris on Friday—the scenes of indiscriminate bloodshed and terror on the streets, the outrage against Islamic extremism among the public, French President Francois Holland’s vow to be “merciless” in the fight against the “barbarians of the Islamic State”—is, unfortunately, precisely what ISIS intended. For the greater the hostility toward Muslims in Europe and the deeper the West becomes involved in military action in the Middle East, the closer ISIS comes to its goal of creating and managing chaos.

This is a strategy that has enabled it to confound far superior international forces, while enhancing its legitimacy in the eyes of its followers. The complexity of the French plot also suggests how successful ISIS has been at cultivating sources of support within the native populations of secular Western countries. Attacking ISIS in Syria will not contain this global movement, which now includes more than two thousand French citizens.

Some analysts believe Europe will be overrun in as little as two decades– it is not just the brown muslim wave of Syrian refugees– but the black muslim tsunami of economic migrants sure to move north out of Africa’s youth bulge.

Terror as a defensive deterrent: IS uses terror to propagate fear and loathing in western societies– make no mistake, white/anglo blood flowing from a beheading terrifies americans and europeans just as much as aristocrat blood pooling around the guillotine terrified the Ancien Regime– the hereditary rulers of France.  In Idarat al Tawahhush Nājī speaks to destroying the “deceptive media halo” of the invulnerability of the superpowers– American is displayed in multiple beheading video productions as powerless to prevent the spilling of the blood of its citizens.

The idea of white supremacy convolved with nationalism is potent stuff– it fueled the rise of Hitler and the Nazis.  Brown blood is cheaper than white blood.  Its why Assad was permitted to slaughter a quarter of a million Sunni citizens, why Russia was permitted to slaughter a quarter of a million Chechan citizens.  The First World won’t care until its made to care– I personally think demographic shift is going to make it care.

There is a “perfect storm” coming in the Middle East and Africa– a storm of youth population demographics empowered by social media and technology.   When Obama and Putin say they are going to “destroy” the Islamic State I think that is magical thinking and fantasy… or mere chest-beating propaganda.  According to the Maths it cant be done.  The inexorable forces of technology and youth demographics are reshaping the world– and not in the First World’s favor.