Terrible Lie

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My depression and lack of posting isnt directly attributable to the election…its all about what the election has unveiled.  Like the creeping reveal of a terrifying horror movie there were plenty of clues in the run-up to Trump’s election.  The one thing that Trump told his supporters that was actually true– “I am your last chance”.  If the GOP remains the party of non-college whites they will never win a majority again.

But the coming liberal supermajority isnt exactly good news for our democratic republic.  The Terrible Lie that America is founded upon is that “all men are created equal”.  Liberals believe that the playing field (environment) can be leveled with law– conservatives believe that attitude can triumph over aptitude (“drive”) — these are articles of faith.   Yet neither of these aphorisms are true.  The truth is that we can’t level the genes.  At least, not yet.

The deciding factor in the election was educational attainment, pointed out by Nate Silver and Daniel McCormack—  McCormack’s analysis is especially trenchant when applied to the four battleground states that decided the election.  Yet no one is talking about this.  Are we afraid to?  Maybe.

What we are going to discover going forward is correlation of IQ and educational attainment, correlation of IQ and SES, correlation of brain biochemistry and IQ…and horribly — inverse correlation of IQ and educational attainment with red brain biochemistry.  Data Science, R programming, MIT’s Social Machine, and accelerated research into cognitive genomics with our new fabulous 21st century technology toolset– these tools are going to raise the lid on a pandora’s box of horrors that we would much rather not know…because it means secular democracy is a Terrible Lie.

The Founder’s America was built on the rough electoral parity of two ideologies– but what happens when there is radical electoral dimorphism?  In polarized America, the only thing that breaks familial tendency  seems to be education.  So what Grand Bargain can a permanent liberal supermajority offer the conservative minority?  Is there a place for Jefferson’s Noble Yeomen Farmers in the college-educated hightech world of the future where robots do their old blue-collar jobs?  Just one example– with the advent of self-driving cars 1.5 million long haul truckers are projected to lose their jobs within 4 years.  Can Trump bring those jobs back too?

This is why KellyAnne Conway (aka Skeletor in Drag) is so vested in pushing the eumeme of “alternative facts”.  Its why the GOP’s only pragmatic option for maintaining political power is fascism.

Even though I am a flaming liberal I hate this…I stood in class and pledged allegiance like everyone else.  If the richest country on earth cant realize the dream of a representative republic what hope is there to spread “democracy” to the rest of the planet?  And even worse…how to keep red brain genetic tendency Americans from finding out the truth?

Unz blogger Razib Khan once famously (or infamously) mused– “How to tell stupid people that they are stupid…”.  Going forward Razib and the rest of the HBD crewe are gunna have to work furiously to keep them from finding out.

 

 

 

 

The Demographic Doom of the GOP Isn’t Hispanics: Its Education

screen-shot-2016-11-19-at-6-33-01-amResults of the 2016 Scholastic Poll.

There is a huge amount of post-election handwringing over why the polls were wrong.  But the most interesting analysis I saw was this piece by Daniel McCormack, contesting the theory that income, % white or manufacturing employment were actually the discriminating  separations– it was education.

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What are the four variables?  Starting top left: income, manufacturing, %white, education.  What is happening?  Let McCormack explain–

What the regression analysis is telling us, then, is that districts with lots of manufacturing employment aren’t on average shifting their votes to Trump; they just appear to be shifting their votes to Trump because in many cases these districts also have below-average education levels, and these districts absolutely are shifting votes to Trump. In fact, after accounting for the effect of education on vote change, districts with manufacturing employment are shifting less of their votes towards Trump. (I ran a hundred or so permutations of this model, adding and subtracting different covariates. For instance, if education is left out but whiteness and income are included, manufacturing is still positive. I feel pretty confident that education is responsible for the flipped sign on manufacturing.)

So the real enemy for the GOP is education— half the scholastic respondents will be first time voters in 2020– and then in increasing numbers every election cycle going forward for the forseeable future.   The GOP base isnt going to college anytime soon–older, sicker, and whiter than the democratic base– but uniformly and fervently wishes a college education for their children.  Olds dont go to college…they eventually die-off.   The Trump presidency is actually radar chaff obscuring deep structural problems in the electorate.  The single thing Trump said to his supporters that was true was “I am your last chance”.  The GOP will never win a popular majority again, and soon demographics will top the levees of gerrymandered districts.  Then in 2040 the hispanic demographic deathcross, where declining number of whites crosses the increasing number of hispanics.

Forbidden Planet

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Forbidden Planet is one of my all time favorite movies– I have loved it since childhood.  But sadly I see a lot of parallels to contemporary America.

And I’m heartbroken over the current state of America.  I honestly dont care who wins the election…its a choice between a massive cardiovascular event and terminal gastroenteric cancer.  But I will say this– we deserve Donald Trump.  He is the avatar of the American Dream– fabulously rich, surrounded by his trophy wives and trophy children…pugnacious, self-assured, bombastic.  He embodies American Exceptionalism perfectly…its like we americans with all our riches and power have become the Krell.  Clinton is just a monster of a different sort.

The two points for me that resonated the most in the respective conventions were Marcus Lutrell at the RNC and the hispanic ex-Marine congressman at the DNC.  Lutrell appeared to be in the throws of an A-stan PTSD flashback, his pupils entirely dilated and darting maniacally around the room– the ex-Marine reminissed fondly about “kicking the doors in Iraq”.  When will we stop sending American troops around the word to try to bomb brown muslim people or yellow communist people into secular judeo-xian “democracy”?

The only thing both parties agree on is the need to wipe out IS…i think it cant be done.  Our foreign policy is set to spawn an infinite number of fractal islamic insurgencies…fueled by the demographic tsunami coming out of Africa and vectored on the social media of the digital age.

The implication in Forbidden Planet is that the Krell got extincted by their own “monsters from the id”– that using the Krell brain amplifier created these uncontrollable monsters as a by-product…its like all of the GOP base (redbrain genetic tendency ) are monsters from Americas id.  We liberals say we are different– that we are forced to support the id monsters to win elections.  I even believed that until i saw what Obama has done for the last 71/2 years.  Ramp up of the surveillance state, persecution of whistleblowers, bombs and drones, covert CIA ops…Obama betrayed every promise he made to me.  Sry, I take it personal.

Donald Trump is no more than we deserve.  May the best monster win.

“Monsters!  Monsters from the id!” — Dr. Morbius